Aaron Jansen illustration

They haven't planted signs in Alaska yards quite yet, but the political game is afoot well ahead of next fall's election -- earlier than ever before, some say.

Watchers attribute that in part to the chaotic year for Alaska politics that started at the end of August 2008 -- that landmark moment when first-term Gov. Sarah Palin dropped a bombshell. She would join U.S. Sen. John McCain on the national campaign trail, seeking the country's second-highest office.

But the Republican ticket fell short of victory and Palin came home, leaving media and political insiders to ponder whether the governor -- at that point, tight-lipped about her future plans -- would be running for re-election in Alaska in 2010, or seeking a platform from which to test the waters for a run at the presidency.

The prospect of a vacancy drew interest from Republicans who say they wouldn't challenge a sitting governor of their own party. But when Palin dropped a second bomb in July, resigning her office with a year and a half to go, Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell rose to the state's top job.

With an incumbent like Parnell, who is enjoying smooth sailing three months in, the going gets tougher for those hoping to lay claim to the job.

Some, like Jeff Staser, decided it's no longer worth it. He filed as a third-party candidate, but said Friday he'll be pulling out.

"Once Sarah announced that she was going to resign, it changed the math quite a bit," Staser said. "I think Sarah's early departure allows the current governor to build up and begin campaigning in a very serious and heavy way right now.

"Unless something really and truly dramatic changes, the field of candidates is fairly mature."

More than what may change in the next year is what has changed in the past year. Alaska politics are "in flux" after a series of major hits, University of Alaska Anchorage history professor Steve Haycox said.

First, there is Palin. Initially known as a politician with the power to draw steady support from both sides of the aisle, she became a polarizing figure during the national campaign. Alaskans may be ready for a return to center, Haycox said.

Second, there is the far-reaching federal probe into corruption that brought down several state lawmakers and, last year, sitting U.S. Sen. Ted Stevens (a judge later threw out his conviction on bribery charges because of errors made by the prosecution). Bill Allen, a former oilfield services company executive at the hub of the corruption scandal, was sentenced last week.

Both could open the door for Democrats.

But Jerry McBeath, a political science professor at University of Alaska Fairbanks, suggested the 2010 election may be more about a different resource -- natural gas.

"That's the only thing that's out there right now," McBeath said.

Already, several gubernatorial contenders are separating themselves from the pack over gas. Parnell is standing by the state's deal with TransCanada through the Alaska Gasline Inducement Act, while two of his Republican challengers -- Rep. John Harris of Valdez and Bill Walker of Anchorage -- advocate attention to other options to link Alaskans with the North Slope resource.

Alaska's top job

The field for governor is broad, and led by incumbent Republican Gov. Sean Parnell. He hasn't filed, but announced last month that he will run.

So far, Democrats Sen. Hollis French, Bob Poe, and former legislator Ethan Berkowitz, all of Anchorage, have made their intent official. Alaskan Independence Party candidate Donald Wright of Wasilla is lined up for the race, as is Palmer Republican Gerald Heikes. Two Republicans from Valdez - - Harris, a state legislator and former House speaker, and Walker, now an Anchorage attorney and general counsel for the Alaska Gasline Port Authority -- have announced they will run but haven't filed yet with the Division of Elections. And Erica Jacobsson, of Anchorage, has filed as the Green Party's candidate.