Aaron Jansen illustration

While a solid slate of candidates for the Alaska governor's job has taken center stage leading into the 2010 election season, a couple of legislative seats will be up for grabs come November. The results of those races have the potential to shake up the balance of power in the House, and could trigger re-organization in the Senate as well.

Democrats and Republicans alike are throttling up to back incumbents and to launch offensives against sitting legislators, especially in Anchorage and Fairbanks.

The Alaska Republican Party is hoping to recapture a couple of Anchorage seats won over by Democrats in recent years. Meanwhile, Democrats are amassing backing for candidates seeking to topple a potentially vulnerable Interior Republican and to take at least two seats without an incumbent.

If Democrats can pick up two seats and lure three Bush lawmakers back to the party's caucus, the Republicans' grip on House power could let loose.

"We're very optimistic, and we're working very hard right now to field a good slate of candidates," said Kevin Harun, spokesman for the Alaska Democratic Party.

Bush caucus leader Rep. Reggie Joule, a Kotzebue Democrat who is part of the Republican majority, said he and two other rural lawmakers meet with the majority in part to gain support for key rural positions. But each election opens the door to forge new alliances, and after the 2010 election, their position with Democrats or Republicans could be the deciding factor in which party gains control of the House.

"We just have to see what the outcome of the election is," he said. "The one thing about the Bush is we really do try to work across the party lines and the majority-minority."

As much as splitting by traditional party, Alaska politicians also are separated by their geography -- those representing rural constituencies, and those elected from urban centers. And while the urban Democrats have been building in number in recent years, Joule suspects they'll have to make major efforts to hang onto that edge.

"We'll see how all that plays out," Joule said. "I think the Republicans are going to have to work equally as hard to try and retain a majority."

The key, he said, will be how urban and rural Alaska lawmakers can be of benefit to each other on critical issues like energy and the economy, without negative impact on cornerstone rural matters like subsistence.

"The big thing here is how can we lift the whole boat," Joule said. "The group that's willing to have that focus is where you'll find some of the Bush legislators."

A couple of lawmakers appointed to their posts this year will be launching campaigns for the first time in 2010. Fairbanks Republican Rep. Jay Ramras is forgoing re-election to a fourth two-year term in favor of a shot at the lieutenant governor's job. Anchorage Democrat Rep. Harry Crawford will wedge his political weight against long-time U.S. Congressman Don Young, a Republican considered vulnerable despite his tenure because of ongoing federal investigations. Also up for grabs may be House veteran John Harris's Valdez seat, one the Republican has held since 1998. Harris has said he will mount a primary election challenge to Gov. Sean Parnell for the state's top job.

While most incumbents say they're going to ask voters for another term, others remain undecided.

Rep. Scott Kawasaki, D-Fairbanks, knows he'll be campaigning in 2010, but hasn't quite decided if that will be for his House job or for lieutenant governor.

"Things are changing so fast, it's hard to say," Kawasaki said, adding that he'll commit to running for lieutenant governor or for re-election in his House district before the legislative session starts Jan. 19.

And Sen. Con Bunde, who won a Senate seat in 2002 after investing 10 years in the House, acknowledged he's become frustrated enough with a bipartisan majority coalition that it may be time to bow out of state politics.