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Buser leads Iditarod to TakotnaBig Lake's Martin Buser, the four-time champion of the Iditarod Trail Sled Dog Race, arrived at the front of the pack in Takotna with 15 dogs Tuesday evening at 8:16PM. Significantly, his big string of 15 dogs displayed superior speed and strength. Defending champ Lance Mackey from Fairbanks, driving a diminished team of 12, came in about an hour and a half later, closely followed by the methodical Canadian Sebastian Schnuelle, still driving 14 dogs. Rounding out the top 10 were Hugh Neff from Tok, Mitch Seavey from Sterling, Ray Redington Jr. from Wasilla, Robert Bundzten from Anchorage, Mike Williams, Jr. from Akiak, Dallas Seavey from Wasilla and John Baker from Kotzebue. Conspicuously absent was veteran Paul Gebhardt from Kasilof, who scratched in Nikolai after noting that warm weather was making it difficult to keep his bigger built huskies hydrated. Retired four-time champ Doug Swingley, in Montana, and I have reviewed times for all these mushers and offer the following interpretation: Buser, by any account, is firmly in charge of the race. We think he will take advantage of his 90-minute lead and spend the 24-hour mandatory rest in Takotna. After three decades of watching Buser race, we know that he prefers hard trails and a strategy based on speed. Additionally, he trains in moderate temperatures at Big Lake and has developed a type of shorter haired husky that can work hard in warm weather. So far, the trail and weather conditions of Iditarod 2011 appear designed for Buser and team. He has to be feeling good about his position. Having said that, the following teams also look very strong. Former Iditarod champ Mitch Seavey and his son, Dallas, the winner of this year’s Yukon Quest International Sled Dog Race, each have 15-dog teams to match Buser. Although neither driver has been flashing to the head of the race, they have positioned themselves to the front of the pack while getting judicious rests for the dogs. Typically, Mitch Seavey prefers to emerge in the last third of the race. He is keeping his ammunition dry and could explode to the front after the 24-hour mandatory. In hindsight, caution during the early part of the race in unusually warm temperatures, at least for Alaska, could pay big dividends later. Mackey deserves mention because he is suffering a little bum luck at this stage of the race, having been reduced to a 12-dog team. It’s tough to lose four pullers this early. Mackey is so skilled at getting the most out of a dog team that we would normally expect him to counter Buser's hard drive to Takotna with an alternate strategy. For example, a marathon push to the halfway point of Iditarod for the 24-hour break would put Lance's dogs to rest far up the trail. But, with what is now a small team, my panel of experts believes Mackey will rest his dogs alongside Buser’s team in Takotna. If you enjoy twists in strategy, then it's worth watching the rest of the top 10. Where will they declare the 24-hour rests? Can they see a way to leverage Buser's position at the front? Personally, I would like to see the Seaveys and Neff break the tranquility of the Takotna checkpoint and continue to Iditarod. That would put them looking back on the field, and looking forward to the Nome finish line. It seems from afar that these teams considered the warm weather and avoided the early frenzy at the near front of the pack to preserve themselves. That strategy can pay big dividends. I was asked to share an anecdote from my own racing experience to demonstrate the dramatic possibilities in the second half of the race. My first Iditarod in 1983 was a warm weather race -- not unlike 2011. I was inexperienced and overly cautious with my trapline team of Yukon River huskies. The dogs had slept on snow all winter on the trapline, had very thick coats, and did not adapt well to the warm weather. We arrived in McGrath in 54th, not a particularly impressive place to be, competitively speaking. However, temperatures cooled as we worked north. Using a run/rest schedule of four hours running, and four hours resting, the team passed 40-some teams and finished 11th. Rick Mackey, Lance’s older brother, was the champ that year. The potential for dramatic shifts in momentum in this race cannot be underestimated. Watch as mushers lock onto a destination for the 24-hour mandatory. As a spectator, I want to be caught off guard with an unexpected play. Joe Runyan, champion of the 1985 Yukon Quest International Sled Dog Race and 1989 Iditarod Trail Sled Dog Race, worked with former Iditarod champion Jeff King on his book, "Cold Hands, Warm Heart" as well as with defending Iditarod champion Lance Mackey on his autobiography, "The Lance Mackey Story", and will be providing commentary and analysis of Iditarod 39 for Alaska Dispatch. |
