Does Miller have momentum in race against Murkowski?

It wasn't too long ago that the chattering class assumed that Tea Party candidate Joe Miller was doomed in his race against Sen. Lisa Murkowski. First there was all that crazy racial drama involving the chairman of Tea Party Express. There was the scene involving a smart phone, a bar, and wife of Miller's campaign manager. Then there was radio talk show host Dan Fagan bellowing "You're lying!" at Miller. (It's worth a listen if you haven't heard the whole thing.)

Murkowski seemed so confident that she all but ignored Miller.

Now, however, things seem to be changing. Suddenly Fagan is doing all he can on his show to get Miller elected. Sarah Palin is robocalling, and Murkowski's responding. And although her campaign insists that internal polling shows that she's way ahead, in at least one area there seems to be something in the way that she's responding that bespeaks nervousness.

Today the campaign released yet another ad, defending Murkowski's health care voting record which included a clip of Fagan's rant (which, ironically enough, played on Fagan's show today when Joe Miller was guest.)

"Even after calling Joe out on his lies, his campaign continues to spread them and has forced us to take the gloves off," Murkowski's spokesman Steve Wackowski said in a release about the radio ad.

Instead of using her air time to take on Miller for wanting to privatize social security and Medicare, say, or questioning how his fiscal hawkishness will jive with Alaska's taste for pork, or even talking about the things she has done in D.C., she's spending it defending herself for what she said when about Obamacare. She says that she's always been against the legislation. Miller says no. And on and on they go. In fact, it was the only question she asked him in the only debate between the two that was aired statewide.

They spent a lot of time on it then. And still are. And what do we, the voters, take away from all the he said, she said? Not much, except that it appears that he's lured her to his side of the ring, which is never a good spot for a politician to wander into, particularly sans gloves.

Political strategist Jim Lottsfeldt said that Murkowski is talking more about other issues on the trail, like alternative energy and the importance of seniority, and he thinks that she's in a good position to win the primary tomorrow. But he does think that on the health care debate at least, she's taken the bait. "You can't debate him in the one area that she doesn't have strength," he said.

David Dittman, a local pollster who usually works for Republicans but isn't working for any candidate this primary season, believes that if Murkowski is nervous there might be some justification for it. He doesn't believe that Miller will win, but he said "it could be a lot closer than Lisa wants it to be."

The last poll that Dittman did was about three weeks ago, which showed Murkowski with a two-to-one lead over Miller. But since he's sensed momentum on Miller's side. In fact, he wouldn't be totally shocked if Miller won tomorrow, considering the anti-incumbency sentiment in the rest of the country, which (surprise!) Alaska is part of, even if many of us are just beginning to wake up and realize it.