"For those who have written off the chances of a large steel pipe moving Alaska gas to the Lower 48: What if you're wrong?" said Larry Persily, federal coordinator of Alaska Natural Gas Transportation Projects, at a Tuesday luncheon hosted by the Resource Development Council and Alaska Support Industry Alliance. Persily presented an update on the proposed natural gas pipeline projects, stressing that Alaskans should exercise patience:

"Exxon Mobil, BP, ConocoPhillips and TransCanada have spent in the neighborhood of $400 million total since 2000 to look at the viability of the project. They're still looking, still spending. Wait for the open seasons to close, wait for the commercial negotiations that will follow. Wait to see what the producers ask of the state. Wait to see what the White House can do to help. And wait to see what the nation does about reducing carbon dioxide emissions and turning to natural gas."

Here's Persily's full speech from Tuesday's luncheon:

Thank you for that welcome. I wish I had something equally enthusiastic to offer in return.

I look out and see 200 of you who paid $35 or $40 each to hear my opinions. I've got to tell you, no one has ever paid that much to hear me before. I gave away my opinions for free in newspapers, on radio and TV and at luncheons for years. If I had known you were this loose with your money, I would have started charging long ago.

I wonder - could I get a show on Fox?

Let's talk about the gas line.

I'm not here to tell you it will be built this decade. But I assure you it is not dead; shale gas has not driven a silver stake through the Alaska pipeline; the market has not forgotten us. It may not be paying as much attention as we would like, but that could change.

Patience.

A national commitment to using more natural gas to keep the lights on, computers running and air conditioners cooling could help the outlook for the Alaska pipeline.

The natural gas share of U.S. electrical generation doubled between 1990 and 2009, climbing from 12 percent to 23 percent. Power generators were the only gas customers to increase their use during that period - industrial demand has been dropping for the past 15 years. Commercial and residential demand has been essentially flat, and most analysts expect those trends to continue.

It's that trend in power generation that gives us hope. Cambridge Energy Research Associates forecasts another doubling in gas demand from electrical utilities by 2030.

Anyone who has ever tracked the accuracy of the state's oil price forecasts - especially the ones I worked on - knows the further out they go, they less accurate they are. But Alaska really needs those strong electrical demand forecasts to come true.

Natural gas is cleaner burning than all other hydrocarbon fuels for electricity, except the state-owned Healy coal plant - which isn't emitting any pollution.

A new, combined-cycle natural gas-fired power plant emits one-third as much carbon dioxide as the average U.S. coal-fired plant. And no soot or mercury.

So why haven't all of the nation's electrical utilities abandoned coal and switched to natural gas?

Coal is cheap, abundant, domestic. Its price has been much more stable over the years than gas. It employs an awful lot of workers in a lot of states, plus it has the backing of the railroads that haul all that coal.

You haven't seen an effective lobbying campaign until you have stood in front of a fully loaded coal train pulling out of Wyoming or West Virginia, heading for Congress.

And, yes, the coal industry is working to clean up its emissions. It will continue as a key source of power generation for decades.

Maybe the best political hope for the natural gas industry - the best hope for the Alaska pipeline - is for gas to capture future growth in generating capacity and the conversion of older coal-fired plants ready for retirement.

That is happening. Calpine, which recently purchased several generating plants from Mid-Atlantic power company Pepco, announced it will convert two coal-fired stations to gas. Canada's Atco Power said it would convert its coal plants in Alberta if it can get long-term price stability on gas supply contracts.