Elections, oil and uncertainty

The second session of the 26th Alaska State Legislature is set to begin Tuesday in Juneau. With a number of critical issues on the agenda for Alaskans, we take a look at five people/events to watch this year in Alaska politics.

5) The Democratic primary for governor: It has been a long time since the Democratic primary has offered voters the luxury of three candidates, all with significant resumes and all with the ability to raise money.

Former House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz will run his third statewide race in as many general elections. In 2006 Berkowitz began running for governor but then opted to run for lieutenant governor when Tony Knowles entered the race late. In 2008, Berkowitz ran for Congress, racking up impressive fund-raising but falling short in the vote against incumbent U.S. Rep. Don Young. Rumors have it that Berkowitz has been raising good money and is over the six-figure mark. Critics of Berkowitz, including some in his own party, say Ethan has had his chance and has worn out his welcome. However, a poll done last summer showed he was far and away primary voters' choice.

State Sen. Hollis French will run his first statewide campaign. Rumors say French has raised a little over $90,000 and his fund-raising announcements have shown a wide range of Democratic support. Critics say French doesn't have the name recognition and has no chance of beating whoever emerges from the GOP, primary because he is too far left.

Former Knowles administration commissioner and former economic development official Bob Poe is probably the most interesting candidate of the mix. No report on how Poe is doing with fund-raising, but his economic experience and ability to articulate a plan for Alaska's business community has drawn attention from even Republican voters. Poe appears to be more moderate in his views compared to traditional Democratic candidates and has been working hard the past year to build name recognition. Critics say Poe, who is viewed as a Tony Knowles prototype, could win the general but can't win a Democratic primary. Ironically, usually in politics it's the exact opposite; win the primary but no chance of winning the general election.

4) Lt. governor challenger Jay Ramras: Jay Ramras is challenging semi-incumbent Craig Campbell for the lieutenant governor slot in the GOP primary. I say semi-incumbent because Campbell was appointed to the seat in July during the shuffle of power after Sarah Palin quit.

Ramras and Campbell are exact opposites. Ramras is the kind of guy who speaks his mind and isn't afraid to step out front on critical issues. Campbell is viewed as quiet and more of a go-along to get-along guy who hasn't run a campaign since he ran for Anchorage mayor in 1994.

Ramras is a pit bull on the campaign trail and his initial list of supporters has been impressive.

3) Senate President Gary Stevens: He enters the session as the captain of a ship with what could be a fairly rowdy crew. Democrats and Republicans have a 10-10 split and have been governed the last three years by a coalition that has worked surprisingly without a lot of drama.

But this is an election year -- a gubernatorial election year -- and behaviors become quite different when some are trying to score political points in front of their voters.

He leads a coalition that will have to deal with issues like oil and gas taxes, which create the environment for grandstanding. Stevens is a steady hand and rarely appears to get rattled, but this year could be different, as some in his caucus look to make a name for themselves.

Will it be the Love Boat or Mutiny on the Bounty?

2) Finance Co-Chair Mike Hawker: Rep. Hawker has emerged as the heir to Ralph Samuels' title as the go-to-guy on oil and gas issues. His bill, co-sponsored by House Speaker Mike Chenault, to address the natural gas availability and storage problems in Cook Inlet looks to be one of the biggest pieces of legislation this session.

Hawker has lived up to his name. He has become the Legislature's budget hawk, already facing hundreds of millions worth of spending requests from Gov. Sean Parnell for various programs. He'll have the responsibility of trying to craft a budget with an eye towards declining oil production and an iffy gas pipeline.