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Iditarod 2011 could be nail biterJohn Baker arrived at Unalakleet on the Bering Sea Coast at 5:04. a.m. Sunday, firmly in control of his destiny in the Iditarod Trail Sled Dog Race. He'd made a strong 10-hour, 46-minute passage over the Kaltag portage from the Yukon River. Behind him, a phalanx of his pursuers, including second position Ramey Smyth of Wasilla, arrived about two and a half hours behind. They had gained only marginally on the front-runner who hails from farther north along the coast at Kotzebue. I called my network of pundits, including four-time champ Doug Swingley in Montana, to explore the dynamics of the race. After some confusion deciphering the difference between and Alaska Standard Time and Alaska Daylight Savings time (they switch overnight in the middle of the race), we concluded that the chase pack made only a minor dent -- at most 15 to 25 minutes -- in the race lead Baker built coming up the Yukon. Therefore, Baker is now leveraging an advantage of at least two hours on his competition. At this stage of the race, travel times are predictable, and the dogs now remaining in lead teams are so hardened to the trail that two hours becomes a huge margin to overcome. Were that not enough of a hurdle for the chasers, the race has also shifted into a different strategic mode. The finish is only three hops away for Baker: Unalakleet to Koyuk, Koyuk to White Mountain, and White Mountain to the finish in Nome. These are the three basic plays left to all in the front pack. The options for catching Baker have been reduced. So, let’s look at the dynamics at play. Presently, Baker's team looks rock solid. They are showing no signs of weakening. The dogs are well adapted to the Bering Sea coast weather. Most mushers would concede that he has the best team for knifing into coastal storms. Even if the wind starts howling at Shaktoolik, a legendary blowhole, Baker will confidently cross the sea ice to Koyuk. The weather is simply not going to hold him up. He is an experienced top-10 finisher who understands travel along the coast. His lead dogs are exemplary, totally reliable, in bad weather. To protect his two-hour lead, Baker will probably rest five to six hours in Unalakleet and then make one continuous run to Koyuk. At Shaktoolik, a little past a third of the way on, he can check on race times and know exactly when Smyth and crew departed Unalakleet in pursuit. If he has enough cushion on them, he might rest an hour or two in Shaktoolik and then continue. He now has the advantage of looking back. Even if he stops briefly in Shaktoolik, he's pretty sure to leave before the following pack sees him. This is a tremendous psychological advantage, for he now becomes an apparition, an abstract concept ahead on the trail that his competitors are chasing. In the chase pack, meanwhile, new realities are developing. While they all want to catch Baker, a greater priority is present. After eight days of absolute concentration and exhaustion, the fight for position becomes all important to a front-runner. The emotion of catching someone in front is reasonably satisfying. However, the emotion of being passed is far more powerful one, and in a negative way. The thought of being passed at this point is gut wrenching, especially when you invested a year’s work to get in the top 10. In making the final moves of the race, nobody wants to do anything dumb or impulsive to destroy the magic of the team. Reasonable caution will prevail within the following pack. If Baker plays this perfectly, he should be able to continue to force his competitors to follow his rest and run sequences. Having said that, what can happen? Presently, Smyth has the fastest team in the front pack. Among mushers, he is known for fast times on the coast and is known for passing mushers in the last miles to the finish. He does this by carefully resting his team and then working behind them. Smyth will run every hill, whistle, push, jog, kick, skip, and do whatever it takes to keep the team moving up into the Blue Berry Hills, across the sea ice, over little McKinley, and lastly through Topkok Hills on the last leg to Nome. Baker is not known to work as actively behind the sled. If you wanted to chose one guy in the Iditarod pack as a chaser with a chance on the coast, it would probably be Smyth, or maybe Hans Gatt, an experienced triathlete from Whitehorse, Yukon Territory.
Excellent, John Baker - wishing you a safe and victorious journey on the coast. I couldn't be happier with you in the lead with that strong team of yours! Well they are still at Unalakleet and John is three hours up the cost!!!!! |
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