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Iditarod 2011 too close to callIditarod Trail Sled Dog Race leader John Baker arrived Monday in White Mountain at 4:03 p.m. after an exhausting non-stop run from Koyuk. Just 51 minutes later, Ramey Smyth from Wasilla arrived second and set the stage for the final race drama on the last 70 miles to Nome. These two have separated from the following pack, including last years second-place finisher, Hans Gatt from Whitehorse, Yukon Territory, Canada, who arrived in White Mountain at 7:33 p.m. Baker and Ramey Smyth are in a race "too close to call" by my group of Iditarod experts. Let's set the scene for the final 70 miles of the 39th Iditarod: Race rules require an 8-hour mandatory stop in White Mountain. In sled-dog circles, eight hours is regarded as a luxurious break, especially for mushers and teams now hardened to the trail. Eight hours is enough for two major meals for the dogs, plus numerous snacks. It's also enough time for a very deep four hours of sleep for the mushers, if they are efficient. The dogs are basically lounging and sleeping if they are not eating. By now they are so accustomed to the ritual of the trail that they will efficiently settle into rest mode. Baker can leave at three minutes past midnight Tuesday. Of course, Smyth follows 51 minutes later. 2 major challenges between White Mountain and NomeThe trail into Nome has two major challenges. The first is a major climb from White Mountain on a portage trail up, through and over the Topkok Hills. This can be a real gut buster, especially at the end of a race when teams are tired and reduced in size. Either Baker's or Smyth's team, depending on strength and how hard the musher works, could change momentum in the Topkoks, where the trail undulates up and down a bit, and several tough climbs present themselves. More on the strengths of each team in a moment. The second challenge can be the dangerous winds. There are a few well known "blow holes" on this Bering Sea coastal portion of trail leading into the Safety checkpoint, just 20 miles from the Nome finish. The National Weather Service expects temperatures 15 to 25 degrees below zero and winds of 15 mph overnight, with clear skies and a high temperature around zero Tuesday morning. Winds are predicted out of the northeast. Wind danger would appear minimal based on the forecast, and both mushers and dogs should have perfect conditions on the trail. Iditarod winner before noon?Based on this year's travel times and trail history, we expect both of these evenly matched teams to reach the Nome finish anytime from nine to 10 hours after leaving White Mountain, putting the winner into Nome no earlier than 9 a.m. Tuesday. Neither Baker nor Smyth ever intended to try and break the Iditarod speed record, I don't think, but their phenomenal efforts, especially on the Bering Sea coast, have edged them closer to a possible history making time. Doug Swingley, the retired four-time Iditarod champion who set the southern route record of nine days and two hours in 1995, has carefully studied the times. He has concluded that not only will his record go down Tuesday, but it is likely that the overall record, set on the northern route in 2002 by four-time Iditarod champion Martin Buser, will fall. Buser reached Nome in eight days and 22 hours in 2002. Conceivably, either of the top two teams this year could run the race in eight days and 21 hours. A 'horse race' to finish the Iditarod Trail Dog RaceIn any other race, Baker’s 51-minute lead would be enough to make him the consensus to win. Baker has been consistently traveling with good times and arrived in White Mountain with 11 dogs -- plenty of power to get to Nome. He is a veteran top-10 finisher who runs a flawless rest-and-run strategy. He is known for having consistent lead dogs. Baker's only problem is who pursues him. Wasilla's Smyth is legendary for his last minute push. Of all the mushers I or my experts could think of who we'd most fear in the closing miles of Iditarod, only 1983 champ Rick Mackey -- four-time winner Lance Mackey's brother -- comes close to matching Smyth. Rick also had a reputation for closing fast, but maybe not as big a one as that of the Smyth brothers. Between Ramey and his brother, Cim, the Smyths have 10 times won the award given by the Nome Kennel Club for the fastest time from Safety to Nome by a top-20 finishing team.
Joe, inquiring minds want to know... What was John's dogs diet in training and during the race? Very interesting and lots of insight. Deeply appreciated, Mr. Runyan. The Dispatch really has a great 'team' of writers: you, Craig Medred and Jill Burke. You have made the event rich and fulfilling. Thanks. Outstanding race for the leaders, fabulous coverage by Joe Runyan, Craig Medred and Jill Burke. Thanks Dispatch! Go John Baker - run fast and don't look back! |
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