Iditarod leaders may surge toward Rohn

This Monday morning, a group of friends and Iditarod fans are pulling information off the Web. Surmise, conjecture, and some hyperventilated assumptions are all part of the morning conversation.

This is what I think: No surprise, Sebastian Schnuelle and his group of older, mature, husky veterans are methodically leading the race on what appears to be a very fast trail. Here's the catch: Everything is about a nice rhythm and a methodical pace for Schnuelle's outfit. He doesn't have to restrain his trusty team's enthusiasm because the dogs have learned all about racing and understand to take it easy and relax. Therefore, he is quite comfortable launching long runs that have put him to the front of the pack approaching Rainy Pass on the divide of the Alaska Range.

On the other hand, Jeff King and Lance Mackey (the two given the highest rankings by Iditarod pundits) are easing their younger teams into the race. Their job for the moment is to control the enthusiasm and speed of their teams on the first couple of days of the race. For them, surging to the front is not as important as settling their teams into an easy pace. Notably, Hans Gatt (the 2010 Yukon Quest Champion) and John Baker (third in last year's Iditarod) are positioned well to the front.

The trail is reported to be nicely reconditioned with new snow, so I doubt mushers and teams are worried about wrecks on glare ice or rutted trail up the south slope of the Alaska Range. The big question is the condition of the trail on the north side, particularly through the Dalzell Gorge, where ice bridges over the open water of the creek are reported to be fragile. One thing mushers know for sure is that the first mushers across those bridges have the best chance of avoiding a wreck. As the bridges weaken, or even break, the mushers following will have a tough time getting a 16-dog team across open water. Therefore, watch for a big surge of front running mushers en route to the Rohn checkpoint (at the bottom of the north shoulder of the Alaska Range). I think it's a big deal in the minds of the competitive mushers to get in line first. This could be exciting.

Incidentally, Monday night and Tuesday morning should be a great time for the true fan. Keep an eye on Martin Buser. He can have the fastest team on the trail and has really blistered the course when conditions are fast. He owns the fastest Iditarod time ever. Characteristically he is known to rest longer, but he is not afraid to let his team rock and roll. His strategy stands in contrast to the more methodical mushers, like Sebastian Schnuelle.

One last thought. Resting in Rohn is not necessarily a good idea if there is little snow on the trail. Most mushers will tell you that the 20-mile stretch of rocks, root wads, and overhanging willows known as the Buffalo Tunnels, just outside of Rohn, is the most difficult. Therefore, some frontrunners may decide to blow through Rohn and camp beyond.

Joe Runyan won the 1985 Yukon Quest and the 1989 Iditarod.