The race is unfolding like a known script. Sebastian Schnuelle (second place last year) predicatably led the pack into Nikolai. But he has a slower team and a methodical strategy.

To win, he has to be in the lead to protect the front, so he is doing exactly what insiders expect: He is guarding the front and daring the others to stay with him on long deliberate runs of up to 12 hours. His dogs are easy movers and travel a little slower than Lance Mackey or Jeff King, for example, but they are well trained to stay at their easy trot for 10 or 12 hours.

King and Mackey are locked in stride. With a cursory view of the statistics available online, we all see that King has a slightly faster team. No surprise there as we note that the two combatants are setting up to do battle to the front. When they will make a move, of course, remains to be seen. Predictably, Lance likes to make a move after his 24-hour break and see if anyone can match him. If King can move to the lead with a steady persistence, that's the way he has done it in the past.

Interestingly, Martin Buser, the musher with the speed record on the Iditarod trail and an undeniable advocate of fast traveling, is situated at his favorite spot near the fish racks of a camp on the banks of the Salmon River. Just 10 miles from Nikolai, Buser has always favored this camping spot. Its quiet here, and it sets him up perfectly to launch for a run that will take him blistering through Nikolai and on to McGrath. I'll just about guarantee that Buser will be in the midst of the lead pack later this evening.

Now, the big question on my mind is "Where are the lead competitors taking their 24-hour mandatory break?" Conventional wisdom now has it that the best strategy -- barring complications like bad weather or questionable trail -- is to position at the front. Most of the mushers are probably eyeing Cripple, near halfway on the trail, to take their 24-hour break.

Sure, Paul Gebhardt and Schnuelle, known for pushing the race, might consider Ruby on the Yukon River as a destination for the 24. But I think Mackey and King will lead a pack including Mitch Seavey and John Baker into Cripple.

To do that, mushers are already lining themselves for a long run tonight out of Nikolai, one more rest in the early morning, and then a final show of strength to Cripple tomorrow.

In the past, the three-time champ Mackey has shown an uncanny ability to manuever into the top five at the 24. You can bet that the other mushers will be watching him closely tonight.

For fun, I like to look for a wrinkle in strategy. Paul Gebhardt, notably, is a musher who would dare to travel beyond Cripple for his 24-hour break in Ruby or even Galena. He has done it in the past with great success. I am watching Gebhardt for an unconventional move.

Joe Runyan won the 1985 Yukon Quest and the 1989 Iditarod.