New leaders will emerge from Cripple tonight

I am not having much fun this early Thursday morning interpreting developments on the Iditarod trail. Information flowing out of Cripple checkpoint is not sufficient to unscramble the story of front runner John Baker. The very interested fan will note reports by the Anchorage Daily News (ADN) and others that the GPS Iditarod tracking system showed Baker and Seavey going through and past the very isolated Cripple checkpoint in the middle of the night. Of course, it doesn't make any sense to an Iditarod insider because Baker and Seavey certainly had to stop and resupply, at a minimum, with dog food. Later in the early morning, a network of dedicated Iditarod fans note that Seavey and Baker are in Cripple at 0 miles per hour.

John Baker was clearly leading the Iditarod pack into Cripple, when, after a nap away from Iditarod's GPS tracking web site, we are all astounded to see Dallas Seavey arriving first into Cripple, followed by John Baker around 1:30 a.m., Thursday.

An ADN report in the middle of the night states that the Iditarod GPS tracking system showed Baker and Seavey going through Cripple. What happened in the darkness? Missed trail? Markers down? Neither the Iditarod's official website of checkpoint times, nor the GPS tracking system has clarified the development.

Nothing on the official Iditarod web site explains the confusion as I write this update

Baker's move to the front of the pack was so pivotal in the overall strategy of the race that I admit a complete reluctance to interpret what happened. Meanwhile, we can say that Jeff King, the four-time champ, has launched from Takotna after a 24-hour mandatory break and is advancing towards Baker and crew in Cripple. With sixteen dogs, fast travel speed, and the experience of a champ, I don't think anyone will dispute that he is the moment's leader of the race.

The 24-hour mandatory rest required by Iditarod rules can be taken anywhere on the trail. Historically, where a musher stops for a 24-hour break can be strategically important. In this year's race, John Baker, Seavey, and Martin Buser apparently decided to push forward to the race's halfway point at the remote, isolated, checkpoint of Cripple before taking their breaks.

Jeff King, and last year's champ, Lance Mackey, on the other hand, carefully stopped at Takotna. They were reluctant to keep traveling to Cripple because trail reports were sketchy. Was the trail hard or soft? They did not want to risk breaking trail for the rest of the racers. Instead, they decided to pull up and rest and let others gamble on trail conditions.

What to look for? King will arrive at Cripple later this afternoon or early evening depending on how he schedules rest breaks. Predictably, he will stop in Cripple to resupply and rest his team. Baker and Seavey will depart from their 24-hour mandatory breaks around 2 a.m. Friday morning. Finally, after the mathematical adjustments of the 24-hour break, we will see the race leader emerge en route to Ruby. Looking at travel times, it appears King should leave for Ruby well before Seavey and Baker's 2 a.m. release time. I am betting that Jeff King will be our leader, halfway to Nome, on a trail to the village of Ruby on the Yukon River.

Joe Runyan won the 1985 Yukon Quest and the 1989 Iditarod.