Playing a game of 'airfare chicken'

Buying airline tickets from Anchorage to the Lower 48 is a lot like a game of "chicken."

We, as travelers, are making vacation plans, cruising down the trip-planning highway and betting that if we wait long enough, air fares will come back down to earth. Alaska Airlines is driving the car in the other direction in earnest -- keeping fares high in the face of declining demand. Their hope is travelers will simply give up and pay the prevailing rate.

Who will blink first?

Honestly, I thought Alaska Airlines would have a fare sale in January. I was geared up for it -- advising people to just hang on for the big announcement. But it never came. Of course, this is no surprise to the people in Juneau or other sole-carrier communities. They have to weigh their remote-outpost lifestyle against the high cost of airline tickets.

The folks in Fairbanks got a nice surprise when Frontier Airlines announced their plans to fly to Denver in the summer. There was a great fare sale for summer travel -- and we can expect more fare cuts as summer approaches.

Here in Anchorage, we become accustomed to a post-Christmas sale so we can lock in some wintertime escapes. But so far, Alaska Airlines only is offering summertime sales. And the prices still are too high in my opinion. For example, Alaska just announced fare cuts to San Francisco and Los Angeles. But the "sale" price between Anchorage and L.A. is $576.09 roundtrip. Huh? And that's just between mid-May and mid-September.

Why mid-May to mid-September? Isn't that the high-capacity summer season? Yes. But it's also when Alaska Airlines faces more competitive pressure on the routes. Accordingly, Alaska Airlines is trying to peel away some of the discretionary travel during this season, making Anchorage a less-attractive target for these new airlines. In this case, United Airlines is offering nonstop service from San Francisco beginning June 9. And Frontier Airlines is offering low fares from California to Alaska, even though it's through Denver. Frontier Airlines really is drawing more attention because it positions itself as a low-fare airline.

Oh, if you think the summertime fares are high, just try and take a trip next month to Southern California. The lowest rate is a whopping $733.50 from Anchorage on Alaska Airlines. Heck, that's more than an early-May trip to Frankfurt on Condor ($703 roundtrip). Oh, that's the cheapest fare, too. If you have to fly on short notice, well, your pocketbook is going to suffer.

Headed to Seattle? I am. But at these prices, I'm willing to play chicken a little longer. Right now, the 14-day advance purchase rate from Anchorage is $524.10. Incredible. And that is significantly less than Fairbanks, where an advance-purchase ticket to Seattle on Alaska Airlines costs $735.59.

These rates reflect the limited competitive threat that Alaska faces between Anchorage and Seattle. Aside from Alaska Airlines, only Continental Airlines offers nonstop service to Seattle -- and only at midnight. Actually, Continental will resume its afternoon nonstop to Seattle beginning Feb. 11. But during the summer, Alaska offers about 20 flights each day. Anchorage qualifies as a "Fortress Hub" for Alaska Airlines.

Compare the Alaska-to-Lower-48 fares with some of Alaska Airlines' "SOS" fares (South of Seattle). Between Seattle and Houston, the rate is $238 roundtrip, including all taxes and fees. Between Seattle and Minneapolis, the rate is $317 roundtrip, all-in. These are not "hidden" fares or Priceline specials -- they're right off of Alaska Airlines' own website -- and they are great deals, if you're starting your trip in Seattle.