Poll: Palin endorsement losing NH moderates

According to a new poll of likely New Hampshire voters by Public Policy Polling, Republican Senate hopeful Kelly Ayotte has a very, very comfortable lead in New Hampshire's Republican Senate primary race, but recently, her lead over her Democratic general election opponent, Paul Hodes, has taken a hit. Ayotte now leads Hodes by a three-point margin, down from a seven point margin in April. Conclusions about cause and effect are hard to reach when it comes to polling, but being endorsed by Sarah Palin seems to have lost Ayotte considerable ground among moderates, a group which, according to PPP, constitutes 47 percent of New Hampshire's electorate. Among those moderates, Ayotte's favorable rating has slid from +5 to -19 since April. 65 percent of moderates, and 51 percent of the total electorate said a Palin endorsement would make them less likely to vote for a candidate. Read much more from PPP, here.

As for some ideas on what this might mean for Sarah Palin herself, The Plum Line's Greg Sergeant gives it a shot. He notes this poll and another recent one mean that "it's growing less likely that [Palin will] succeed if she ever steps outside the bubble she's crafted for herself." Read more, here. And Salon.com's Steve Kornacki traces how New Hampshire voters have developed a reputation for dashing the hopes of Republican candidates who rely on socially conservative messages. Read that, here.