Some lawmakers say there's a limit to the amount of taxation the oil industry -- which provides 90 percent of the revenue to Alaska's state treasury -- will tolerate. There's a line, they say, and if the state crosses it, oil companies will no longer be willing to keep reinvesting their profits in developing Alaska's resources.

That line -- so fine it's invisible -- could be the centerpiece of debate in the legislative session that starts Jan. 19.

In a state where political allegiances can just as easily form along rural/urban splits or regional blocs, lawmakers are hunkering down along party lines for a potential fight over oil and gas taxation. Leaders from both parties are cautious in their assessments of just how far politicians are going to take the battle this session, but 2010 candidates are already building platforms on just that topic as dire projections about the state's future economy surface: dwindling new exploration to find the next revenue-generating oil fields, fewer dollars invested in building up existing finds, and the big question of when another rich resource, natural gas, will finally head to market.

A coalition of 13 House Republicans and two Democrats who caucus with the majority recently sent Gov. Sean Parnell a letter laying out their top concerns about the effectiveness of the current tax plan -- Alaska's Clear and Equitable Share, or ACES - and asking for answers on some complex financial data.

"Regardless of whether you thought ACES was a good thing or a bad thing, there are a number of people on both sides who are looking at the economy," said House Speaker Mike Chenault, a Nikiski Republican who signed the letter. "We have no control whatsoever on the world economy, but we have control over things that happen in this state, to some extent."

He wants to clear up the mixed messages he's hearing from revenue collectors and from those who pay the tax bills.

In a written response, Parnell assured lawmakers he'll get their answers, plus more information they didn't ask for but that could weigh in on the bigger dilemma: how to rescue Alaska's future from the specter of a broad economic downturn, job losses and pinched flows into the state treasury, all predicted in the next decade unless oil companies start exploring for new stock.

"Your letter appears to indicate you believe that a tax regime is the only indicator worth looking into," Parnell wrote. "The legislators' focus on ACES is far too narrow an inquiry because other factors discourage investment."

Rep. Beth Kerttula, a Juneau Democrat who leads the minority, said Parnell's response was well-balanced, and she takes the dire projections with a grain of salt.

"It's a little like ‘The sky is falling,'" she said. "We're in a very symbiotic relationship with the oil industry, and we'll always be that way. We're used to hearing their concerns, and we will look at it. If there's evidence that this is causing issues, then we'll obviously take it seriously -- but so far, there doesn't seem to be any proof."

Sen. Bill Wielechowski, an Anchorage Democrat well-versed in oil and gas issues, echoed a willingness to review the current tax scheme but also a hesitancy to act without substantive data.