Who knows what team will emerge in Shageluk Friday to claim the lead in the Iditarod Trail Sled Dog Race.

Four-time champ Martin Buser from Big Lake clearly has the fastest team this year. But to keep them fast, he's been resting a lot. A few others, most notably Sebastian Schnuelle from Whitehorse, Yukon Territory, Canada, and Tok's Hugh Neff are behind teams that are marginally slower, but might be better suited to a grind-it-out strategy.

Though their teams lack the top-end speed of Buser's, the Iditarod isn't all about top-end speed. A team that can hold a moderate, steady speed for days with limited rest can top a fast team that needs a lot of down time for recovery.

With all the major players in the race already done with the 24 hour layovers, Schnuelle sped through the checkpoint in the old ghost town of Iditarod Thursday evening to grab a lead of about half an hour on Buser, but it was unclear how far the Canadian woud go before stopping.

The 65 miles to Shageluk can be made in one run, but mushers don't usually do that unless their team has had a long rest in Iditaord. Both Buser and Neff rested for hours there, and then chased Schnuelle onto the trail. Neff left about 20 minutes after the Canadian with Buser 10 minutes behind him.

It's known that Buser also gave his team a significant rest stop on the 90 miles between Ophir and Iditarod. Schnuelle had to have camped out there for some time, too, given his travel time of 15 hours and 32 minutes to Iditarod. That's about five hours slower than Buser.

2011 Iditarod: Iditarod checkpoint

Mar 10, 2011

Trent Herbst was the first musher into the Iditarod checkpoint.

Stephen Nowers photo

2011 Iditarod: Iditarod checkpoint

Mar 10, 2011

Martin Buser talks with fans and volunteers as he readies food for his dogs in Iditarod on Thursday.

Stephen Nowers photo

2011 Iditarod: Iditarod checkpoint

Mar 10, 2011

Martin Buser visits at the Iditarod checkpoint on Thursday.

Stephen Nowers photo

2011 Iditarod: Iditarod checkpoint

Mar 10, 2011

Lance Mackey mushes into the Iditarod checkpoint during the 2011 race.

Stephen Nowers photo

2011 Iditarod: Iditarod checkpoint

Mar 10, 2011

Lance Mackey feeds his dogs in the Iditarod checkpoint during the 2011 race.

Stephen Nowers photo

2011 Iditarod: Iditarod checkpoint

Mar 10, 2011

Hugh Neff nears the checkpoint in the ghost town of Iditarod on Thursday.

Stephen Nowers photo

2011 Iditarod: Iditarod checkpoint

Mar 10, 2011

Lance Mackey walks past the official checkpoint in Iditarod during the 2011 race.

Stephen Nowers photo

2011 Iditarod: Iditarod checkpoint

Mar 10, 2011

DeeDee Jonrowe arrives in the Iditarod checkpoint on Thursday.

Stephen Nowers photo

2011 Iditarod: Iditarod checkpoint

Mar 10, 2011

A dog in DeeDee Jonrowe's team peers out of her sled after arriving in Iditarod.

Stephen Nowers photo

2011 Iditarod: Iditarod checkpoint

Mar 10, 2011

DeeDee Jonrowe settles her team in Iditarod after the run from Ophir.

Stephen Nowers photo

2011 Iditarod: Iditarod checkpoint

Mar 10, 2011

Robert Bundtzen nears the ghost town of Iditarod on Thursday.

Stephen Nowers photo

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Schnuelle's team is slower than Buser's -- but it's not that much slower.

The Canadian clearly rested short of Iditarod, planning to blow through the checkpoint and then likely rest again somewhere between there and Shageluk. Schnuelle stayed in Iditarod only 16 minutes, about enough time to grab food and straw for the dogs, and any extra gear he might need from his drop bags.

Neff, unlike Schnuelle, was fast to Iditarod, faster even than Buser. His under 10-hour run time, however, raises the distinct possibility that he did one solid push for the 90 miles from Ophir. He then rested 6 hours and 46 minutes in Iditarod before taking off.

Buser gave his team about an hour more rest there after also resting them on the trail.

Maybe someone with a crystal ball can figure out what this means. Everyone else will have to wait to see what happens. It's all about the old balancing act between pace and rest. The faster you go the more rest you need. It doesn't matter whether you're talking dogs, humans, horses or goats. The real trick in any endurance racing comes in determining the pace. Anyone who has run a five kilometer and 10 kilometer neighborhood race knows this. 

Run the 10K at the same pace as the 5K and you'll likely be out of gas before the finish line -- not to mention stagger to a sorry result. The Iditarod is no different. Go too fast with too little rest and you will pay the price.

Run this race like your competing in the Anchorage Fur Rendezvous World Championship Sled Dog Race and the dogs will quit by Rainy Pass. Go too slow, on the other hand, and you'll get to Nome fine, but not behind the winning team.

Lance Mackey has had the pacing dialed perfectly for four straight years, but he appears to be in trouble this time. He was sixth into Iditarod -- behind Buser, Shnuelle, Neff, Kotzebue's John Baker and Hans Gatt from Whitehorse, the 2010 Iditarod runnerup. That, however, wasn't the bad news for Mackey.

The bad news for Mackey was that he had to drop yet another tired dog. He's now down to nine in his team as the race heads across tough trail to Shageluk and turns north on the Yukon River, where the headwinds can be brutal.

Dog power isn't yet at "crisis point" for Mackey. Mushers have made some strong runs up the Bering Sea coast with as few as eight dogs in their teams, but Mackey can't afford to drop any more dogs. He's already overpowered by the mushers in front of him, who are all running 13 or 14 dog strings.

Contact Craig Medred at craig(at)alaskadispatch.com