So far, a ho-hum, gas-heavy election
Patti Epler |
Jul 15, 2010
The North Slope is running out of oil. Southcentral is running short of gas. So with the primary less than six weeks away, why does it feel like political candidates are running on empty when it comes to debate over critical issues affecting the majority of Alaskans? Political experts say the 2010 campaign season has been a bit of a yawn so far for a number of reasons, not the least of which is there seems to be less money in candidates' coffers for ads and appearances. But mostly, they say, the last couple of elections are a tough act to follow. "One part of it is it's just kind of a letdown after Sarah," says veteran pollster Dave Dittman. "Sean Parnell is definitely a much calmer, cautious personality. But it's also really difficult to replace a governor who hasn't done anything dramatically wrong." Candidates were already lining up to run against Sarah Palin, the shooting star former governor, when she shocked the heck out of everyone by abruptly resigning last July. That catapulted Parnell, then lieutenant governor, into the top spot, where he has carefully steered the state down a decidedly low-key road. Palin's own rise to statewide political prominence came amid federal investigations into oilfield and political corruption. Legislators and oil industry executives were facing indictment and prison terms, which made for constant juicy headlines. Palin herself had won a knockdown GOP primary in 2006 against beleaguered incumbent Gov. Frank Murkowski. She beat another former governor and Democratic rock star, Tony Knowles, in the general election. In the 2008 election cycle, Palin skyrocketed onto the national scene when Republican presidential candidate John McCain asked her to be his running mate. And if that wasn't enough excitement for the locals, former Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich took out U.S. Sen. Ted Stevens, arguably one of the most beloved politicians in state history. But after 40 years in the Senate, "Uncle Ted" was convicted on felony charges of failing to disclose gifts. The conviction was later overturned due to charges of prosecutorial misconduct, but by then the race was over. Now, it seems, Alaska is taking a political breather. "The last few elections have been ground zero for phenomenally interesting events," said Rep. Les Gara, an Anchorage Democrat. "Awful, but captivating at the same time." Gara, who himself runs for re-election every two years, doesn't even have an opponent this year. He says 2010 is really just a normal year, the kind of elections we used to have before the FBI and McCain made the scene. "In some sense, that's too bad because the most important issues are facing us and no one is talking about them," Gara said. The big political elephant in the room is the slowdown in oil production on the North Slope. Taxes and royalties on oil account for about 90 percent of the state budget. The production rate is slowing by about 6 percent per year and state officials and oil company executives are arguing over tax rates and other changes that, depending on your view, will either encourage the oil companies to spend more money on oil that's more expensive to get out or cheat the state out of cash the profitable oil companies can well afford. Democratic gubernatorial hopefuls Ethan Berkowitz and Hollis French are trying to get some political traction on the oil tax issue. French continues to support the ACES tax regimen, which he contends has not hurt jobs or production on the North Slope. Berkowitz prefers to replace ACES with a field-by-field royalty program, a change in the tax code he says will encourage new development. "I think we should be interested in the future direction of the economy," says Scott Goldsmith, an economist with UAA's Institute for Social and Economic Research. "I think there's too much attention directed at the gas line." Oil production "continues to be the bread and butter of the economy and we should be devoting more attention to trying to maximize the oil," he said. Others point to the need to diversify the economy and start a dialog about what happens to the state treasury when the oil eventually does run out.
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