I don't want to Alarm! anyone. So keep calm as you read this. Seriously.

There is a very small chance -- if the State and others fail to take a few simple actions this fall -- that Alaskans from the Kenai Peninsula to the Mat-Su Valley could face a power outage and loss of heat. And the danger is at its greatest when there's a high demand for power and natural gas supplies along the Railbelt energy grid. That means, under Murphy's Law of Losing Your Heat When You Really Need It, that the danger will be greatest during long, cold deep freezes this winter. That's when Alaskans use the most natural gas and electricity.

This week our office, in conjunction with the offices of Reps. Chris Tuck and Pete Petersen and Sen. Hollis French (all D-Anchorage), took steps to ensure that the State doesn't "fail to take a few simple actions this fall" (see first sentence). The problem is eminently avoidable, and we've sent a letter to Governor Parnell to make sure it is, well, eminently avoided. To quiet the Alarm! a bit more -- I'll say that I have every expectation state agencies will do what's necessary to prevent a heating and power outage this winter.

Here's the basic problem. Alaska has limited natural gas production and delivery infrastructure. In a perfect storm of protracted, very cold weather and the failure of equipment, demand for natural gas and electricity could exceed supply for a period of time, until the necessary repairs are made. It's pretty amazing, but from our research so far, it seems the state doesn't have a plan to deal with this. We've been asking, and so far haven't found one.

How would a plan work? Well, the utilities already have some good protections in place. Seward, for example (if they get their new diesel generating facility up and running soon), can switch from the power grid to local diesel power to reduce demand. We might be able to secure some additional energy from the Fairbanks area. Some major facilities might move to use their back-up generating power. There are other things the utilities are prepared to do.

But that might not be enough, according to industry representatives. To be safe, the state, and, the utilities, and local governments along the Railbelt grid need to also have a plan in place that, at the drop of a hat, will get government, business, industry and residential consumers to cut back on their energy use if needed to avoid a blackout. Where it's safe, of course. We don't want to turn down the heat in a hospital. And consumer compliance with a plan should be voluntary -- residents know their own situations better than government does.

The major utilities and the Municipality of Anchorage have working groups to come up with a plan and I understand discussions are starting in other communities too.

As far as we can tell, the state doesn't have a plan, and isn't proactively helping yet to coordinate the various utility and local government plans. Or if we have a plan, it's a classically ineffective government one -- as in, it might be a plan on paper, with lots of dust on it, and that no one knows about. As a resident, I know no one from the state's ever shared the plan with me, so I don't know what to do at my house (I guess I'd just use as little power as necessary). And, more specifically, state and university building managers, as well as managers of large private facilities, have to be ready to turn down their power usage this winter -- quickly -- if needed. The other alternative, which we don't want, is rolling blackouts, where utilities cut off natural gas and power and segments of the community are left in the dark. So -- we need a system of notification, and action, in place. If we have one, it's pretty stealth. Even the utilities don't know about it, because they are working now to come up with plans this fall.

All this, luckily for those of us in politics, isn't rocket science. One reason that's good is that I'm not a rocket scientist, and I don't think I work with any.

(Yells coming in from outside my office...) Correction: I do work with rocket scientists, and have two on my staff.

With the governor's directive, those who manage our facilities should easily be able to have a plan in place soon, and have a plan in place to let the public know what the system will be to make sure residents, as we are able, voluntarily participate when needed.