What to look for in the race after Ruby

Barely more than halfway to Nome, my racing circle of self-described experts are giving Jeff King the mantle for prime contender in 2010. He is posting fast times, driving a dominating string of 15 dogs led by six big males, whom Jeff describes as the best front end he has driven. Additionally, he arrived first into Ruby and leads the race.

What interests me is how he plans on defending his position in front. Iditarod race fanatics may remember when King had the strongest, fastest, team on the trail at Ruby in 2008. In that instance, he chose to cautiously follow Lance Mackey, slower but persistent, down the Yukon River. He was resting his dogs more and surging up to Mackey in every run, gaining 15 to 20 minutes on eight-hour runs. His strategy was to preserve the strength of his dogs and make a push to the front in the final miles of the race. Instead, the strategy had flaws, and Mackey, with only a 12-dog team, somehow assumed the lead after catching King dozing in Elim on the Bering Sea coast. Although Mackey's ruse and nighttime exit from Elim got all the publicity, the most important factor was that Mackey's team suddenly became the fastest team on the trail in the last 150 miles of the race. Mackey, as we all remember, went on to win Iditarod 2008.

King will not forget this possibility. A change in momentum, luck, resilience, a chance encounter or poor trail can change the dimension of the race dramatically. In hindsight, some fans thought that King should have put the hammer down on the Yukon River in 2008 when he had the fastest team. Fans are noting a similar moment in this year's race. What will he do this year?

Taking the lead in the Iditarod involves uncertainties and burdens. King's leaders will be laying down the scent trail for the teams following him. Resting also in Ruby, we find the Incredible Lance Mackey, winner of the last three Iditarods, Hugh Neff, a top finisher in both the Yukon Quest and the Iditarod, and Mitch Seavey, the 2004 Iditarod champ. These three are within an hour of King and will mirror his every move, noting a weakness or miscalculation. Speaking in generalities, King has often been noted for a conservative and thoughtful strategy and loves to preserve the "magic" of his team. Mackey and Neff are driving fast-traveling teams, but they are known to have trained their dogs to travel long distances at a relaxed speed, which enables them to cover lots of miles with a minimum of rest. Mitch Seavey is very calculating and conservative in the early part of races and almost always emerges in the last third of the race with a stronger team.

Notably, fans observe that Mackey does not have the fastest team on the trail, as he did in 2009. But I do note one fact. Mackey, somewhere in the race, with his trademark unpredictability, has a team capable of a game-changing 12-hour run. He may or may not use that tool, but I know King is thinking about it. Another question for the fan. Will Mackey, in particular, or Neff or Seavey challenge with a move to the front?

Generally speaking, the frontrunning mushers like to visualize the end of the race in terms of how many rests and runs are required to finish. For example, the 50-mile run to Galena, the next checkpoint on the Yukon, is a logical destination for most mushers, but King and crew are probably visualizing a rest stop at Bishop Rock, a fish camp midway between Ruby and Kaltag. After a rest, they will launch another long run to Kaltag. Instead of four or five rests, they will have traveled the Yukon efficiently with just three rests.

Usually the wind blows downriver on the Yukon in the winter, a nice push from the back, but the trail on the river will be filled with fine, windblown crystals -- hard pulling and a test for the strongest team. The next benchmark will be Kaltag, when we see lead teams preparing for a long portage to the wind-hammered Bering Sea coast.

Joe Runyan won the 1985 Yukon Quest and the 1989 Iditarod.