Alaska Dispatch

Aaron Jansen illustration

They haven't planted signs in Alaska yards quite yet, but the political game is afoot well ahead of next fall's election -- earlier than ever before, some say.

Watchers attribute that in part to the chaotic year for Alaska politics that started at the end of August 2008 -- that landmark moment when first-term Gov. Sarah Palin dropped a bombshell. She would join U.S. Sen. John McCain on the national campaign trail, seeking the country's second-highest office.

But the Republican ticket fell short of victory and Palin came home, leaving media and political insiders to ponder whether the governor -- at that point, tight-lipped about her future plans -- would be running for re-election in Alaska in 2010, or seeking a platform from which to test the waters for a run at the presidency.

The prospect of a vacancy drew interest from Republicans who say they wouldn't challenge a sitting governor of their own party. But when Palin dropped a second bomb in July, resigning her office with a year and a half to go, Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell rose to the state's top job.

With an incumbent like Parnell, who is enjoying smooth sailing three months in, the going gets tougher for those hoping to lay claim to the job.

Some, like Jeff Staser, decided it's no longer worth it. He filed as a third-party candidate, but said Friday he'll be pulling out.

"Once Sarah announced that she was going to resign, it changed the math quite a bit," Staser said. "I think Sarah's early departure allows the current governor to build up and begin campaigning in a very serious and heavy way right now.

"Unless something really and truly dramatic changes, the field of candidates is fairly mature."

More than what may change in the next year is what has changed in the past year. Alaska politics are "in flux" after a series of major hits, University of Alaska Anchorage history professor Steve Haycox said.

First, there is Palin. Initially known as a politician with the power to draw steady support from both sides of the aisle, she became a polarizing figure during the national campaign. Alaskans may be ready for a return to center, Haycox said.

Second, there is the far-reaching federal probe into corruption that brought down several state lawmakers and, last year, sitting U.S. Sen. Ted Stevens (a judge later threw out his conviction on bribery charges because of errors made by the prosecution). Bill Allen, a former oilfield services company executive at the hub of the corruption scandal, was sentenced last week.

Both could open the door for Democrats.

But Jerry McBeath, a political science professor at University of Alaska Fairbanks, suggested the 2010 election may be more about a different resource -- natural gas.

"That's the only thing that's out there right now," McBeath said.

Already, several gubernatorial contenders are separating themselves from the pack over gas. Parnell is standing by the state's deal with TransCanada through the Alaska Gasline Inducement Act, while two of his Republican challengers -- Rep. John Harris of Valdez and Bill Walker of Anchorage -- advocate attention to other options to link Alaskans with the North Slope resource.

Alaska's top job

The field for governor is broad, and led by incumbent Republican Gov. Sean Parnell. He hasn't filed, but announced last month that he will run.

So far, Democrats Sen. Hollis French, Bob Poe, and former legislator Ethan Berkowitz, all of Anchorage, have made their intent official. Alaskan Independence Party candidate Donald Wright of Wasilla is lined up for the race, as is Palmer Republican Gerald Heikes. Two Republicans from Valdez - - Harris, a state legislator and former House speaker, and Walker, now an Anchorage attorney and general counsel for the Alaska Gasline Port Authority -- have announced they will run but haven't filed yet with the Division of Elections. And Erica Jacobsson, of Anchorage, has filed as the Green Party's candidate.

That leaves a slate of candidates balancing the scales, without any on the far left or far right, Haycox said.

"Everybody is bunched in the middle; there's nobody obviously the right-wing standard bearer on the state level," he said. "In one sense, I think they may be staying away from Palin."

Others rumored to be contemplating a run say they're still considering it.

"I'm very, very seriously still thinking about it," former Rep. Ralph Samuels, an Anchorage Republican, said.

He's putting out feelers to gauge support and develop a sense of where current candidates are on the issues -- and where gaps exist that he can fill.

"I've got concerns about the economy of the state and the direction we're headed," Samuels said.

Another former state lawmaker, John Binkley, said he hasn't ruled out a run but will delay a decision until the end of the year. The Fairbanks Republican underwent treatment earlier in 2009 for prostate cancer, and is looking to his six-month checkup results before making a political commitment.

Alaska Republican Party director Randy Ruedrich said others are testing the waters with polls, and he's hearing there will be others in the race -- but those in the know are "sworn to secrecy" for now.

"There are several folks who are still actively agonizing over whether they're going to run or not," he said.

Alaska Democratic Party director Deborah Williams was not available to comment.

Second-in-command

After Palin's resignation, Alaska's lieutenant governor stepped up -- a reminder of one of the more dramatic functions the second-in-command serves.

Craig Campbell, a Republican from Eagle River, has filed to retain his job as lieutenant governor. He'll face a primary challenge from state Rep. Jay Ramras, R-Fairbanks.

No Democrat has announced a run so far.

Ruedrich said the lieutenant governor contest between Campbell and Ramras could prove one of the most interesting in 2010.

"That may be the most fun to watch," Ruedrich said. "You've got two good candidates. They're both articulate, they're both dynamic."

National races

Republican U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski isn't facing any real threat so far -- but her colleague Rep. Don Young will take on challengers in both the primary and general elections.

Young fought hard to keep his seat in 2008, nearly losing to Parnell in the primary and battling out a general election win against Berkowitz. In 2010, Andrew Halcro will try for the Republican primary win, and state Rep. Harry Crawford, an Anchorage Democrat, will make a go for the job in the general election.

According to Haycox, Young may be more vulnerable than ever following the FBI's probe into Alaska political corruption.

"I think he is discredited by his association with Bill Allen and Ted Stevens," Haycox said. "Young has the reputation of, the image of, being a good old boy ... and it's the good old boys who got caught, convicted."

If Republican Alaskan voters shift from the hard right, a centrist candidate like Halcro could prove appealing, he hypothesized.

State Legislature

Power structures could sway in the state Legislature after the 2010 election, with four lawmakers brought in to fill unexpired terms having to run for the first time, and at least three House seats up for grabs as representatives seek other offices.

The entire House of Representatives faces re-election every two years, but the 2010 race will include three completely open seats. Plus, at least two people appointed to fill vacancies will be running -- if they want to keep the seat -- with only one session behind them.

Ramras, Harris and Crawford won't be able to run to keep their House seats while they seek higher office. John Coghill left the House in October to fill a Senate vacancy, and Rep. Richard Foster, D-Nome, passed away Oct. 13. People appointed to fill those seats will face a campaign in 2010 if they want to keep the job.

Similarly, Coghill will have to run to keep his Senate seat, vacated by Gene Therriault in September. And Dennis Egan, a Juneau democrat named to fill Kim Elton's position in April, will also have to campaign to keep his seat.

Candidates have until June 1 to file with the state's Division of Elections and secure their names on the primary ballot. Some so far have filed a letter of intent only with the Alaska Public Offices Commission, a strategic move that allows them to start accepting and spending money.

Sitting lawmakers running for legislative office can't campaign while in session -- in this case, from Jan. 19 through April 18. That means the sooner politicians file, the more headway they can make in amassing a campaign treasury before buckling down to work in Juneau.

Contact staff writer Rena Delbridge at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .

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