Parties prepare to fight for seats in local races
| Jul 25, 2010Both Republicans and Democrats are sure this is their year to pick up definitive majorities in both houses of the Alaska State Legislature.
Voters have been hearing a lot in recent weeks about the gas line and oil taxes from the five guys running for governor. And then there's been the Tea Party's attraction to Joe Miller. And much pontificating over whether Lisa Murkowski has gotten more conservative because of it.
But not making headlines -- yet -- are campaigns that could change the political face of Alaska for the next few years, setting the stage for how policymakers will deal with a range of critical issues, from oil taxes to resource development to what may well be brutal negotiations with gas producers over construction of a much-anticipated gas line.
Fifty seats in an already closely divided Legislature will be on ballots across the state, and both Republicans and Democrats are sure this will be the year they seize control of the state Senate, now evenly divided between them at 10-10. The House is relatively close, too, with 22 Republicans to 18 Democrats, and both parties are confident they will have picked up additional seats by the time the polls close on Nov. 2.
Seventeen lawmakers -- 10 Democrats and seven Republicans -- have free rides this year. No one signed up to run against them, so barring unforeseen circumstances, they will keep their seats for another term. That leaves 33 contested legislative races, and both sides have been knocking on doors and fundraising all summer.
The Nov. 2 general election is when the dust will finally settle. But the primary will see a political bloodletting of sorts for the GOP; numerous districts in both the House and the Senate have multiple Republican primary challengers, even for seats held by incumbents who are running again. That means Republican candidates will be forced to spend precious campaign cash just to stave off members of their own party, and political experts say a down economy may make it hard to scrape significant sums together in time for the general election.
It's a different story for the Democrats, who like to say they are more disciplined and deliberate when it comes to fielding candidates. Only one race -- House District 39, which covers more than two dozen Bush villages in northwest Alaska -- has a Democratic primary, and there is no Republican running at all in that district, so the seat will stay with the Democrats.
"The Republicans are going to be beating themselves up" in the primaries, says Alaska Democratic Party chair Patti Higgins, while the Democrats will be able to save their energy -- and their funds -- for the general.
The Democrats are confident they will hold 11 Senate seats on Nov. 2 -- keeping the 10 they already have and picking up one. But Republican Party of Alaska chair Randy Ruedrich says no way.
"We know they're wrong," Ruedrich said.
The GOP's slogan for this campaign is "10 plus two," he added. "Our mission is to work on picking up two (seats) and we're working on it very aggressively."
Ruedrich also doesn't put much stock in concerns that GOP candidates might not be able to financially survive competitive primaries. "Primary funding is a small circle," he said, noting that it's generally family and close friends who pay for primaries anyway. It's after the primaries shake out that significant fundraising begins.
Still, Republican party leadership is keeping hands off for the contested primaries. Ruedrich said he does not know of any district party endorsements of candidates in the primary.
Both sides are rubbing their hands over Senate District P, the Hillside seat that is being vacated by retiring GOP Sen. Con Bunde. The Republicans have three candidates in the primary: Cathy Giessel, Jennifer Johnston and Mark Moronell. The winner will face Democrat Janet Reiser in November, and Democrats see this as their best chance to pick up that 11th seat. Moronell, a cardiologist, is the only Republican candidate to buy TV spots before the primary. Reiser has already secured dozens of ads to run the last week in October, before the Nov. 2 election.
Republicans like their chances of keeping Bunde's seat in their caucus. And according to Reudrich, they've also got their eye on Anchorage's District J, where the Senate seat is held by Bill Wielechowski, and Fairbanks' District D, where the incumbent is Sen. Joe Thomas. Both Thomas and Wielechowski are Democrats.
In the House, Democrats are hoping to pick up District 10, the Fairbanks seat being vacated by Jay Ramras, who is running for lieutenant governor. They also like their chances in another open House race, District 12, where Valdez Mayor Bert Cottle will face whichever of three GOP candidates wins the fight to replace outgoing Rep. John Harris.
Other open House seats are likely to stay with the political party that's already dominant in the district. That includes District 18, an Eagle River GOP stronghold in which Rep. Nancy Dahlstom gave up her seat, and District 24 where Democrat Rep. Harry Crawford is bidding for the U.S. House seat long held by Rep. Don Young.
Miller victory: How Murkowski fumbled in GOP primary 
The Alaskan collection: Images from the Alaska State Fair 
Who's Joe Miller? 
Joe Miller wants Alaska to control and develop federal lands, including Denali 
In Alaska's Joe Miller, Sarah Palin finds her Rocky Balboa
Don's heart may not be good enough to last another term and he has so much Abramoff stink on him he's being treated like a polecat by the corporate moneybags.